1. Define the actual question
A prediction market can ask something narrower than the headline. A party nomination does not guarantee ballot access. A product announcement may precede usable access. A race result can be known before a contract settles. We identify the selected outcome and date threshold, then discuss the relevant distinctions.
2. Start with attributable evidence
We use relevant primary sources such as official results, government documents, model announcements, and economic releases. Independent journalism provides additional context and competing claims. Source citations identify which statements each link supports. An institutional source can confirm its own announced policy without establishing that the policy succeeded in practice.
Paywalled or partially accessible reports support only the claims visible during review. A dated article is labeled as background when it cannot establish the current state. Repetition across outlets is not necessarily independent confirmation if the outlets all rely on the same unnamed source.
3. Keep three kinds of information separate
- Reported facts: claims attributable to a linked source, including disputed or qualified reporting.
- Market observations: dated prices observed on Polymarket’s breaking list or public API, as identified by the recorded snapshot date.
- Editorial analysis: conditional reasoning about mechanisms, possible scenarios, and evidence to watch.
Polymarket’s experimental AI-generated market-context summaries are not treated as independent reporting. A displayed probability does not verify that the underlying event happened.
4. Read probabilities carefully
A price is a market-implied estimate from participating traders. Liquidity, bid–ask spreads, trader concentration, fees, and settlement expectations can affect it. A 100% displayed snapshot does not establish certainty or final settlement. The 24-hour movement shown on this site is a magnitude in percentage points; it does not display a direction.
The homepage, topic cards, and analytical text preserve dated research snapshots. Each event’s market panel fetches public API data when the page opens and refreshes every 60 seconds while visible. Open-market percentages use the YES order-book midpoint; a midpoint can differ from Polymarket’s displayed value when its interface uses the last trade for a wide spread. Resolved markets are labeled as results, and unavailable or cached data is explicitly identified. The check time records retrieval, not the time of the last trade.
5. Make uncertainty inspectable
We present multiple conditional outcomes without assigning invented probabilities. Evidence-status notes explain gaps, disputed claims, or absent corroboration. When complete contract rules cannot be retrieved, we say so and link to the actual market. A missing announcement on one source cannot prove that an event did not happen elsewhere.
6. Screen topics before publication
New coverage focuses on political markets created on or after 2026-10-07 at 00:00 UTC. The selected market’s creation time controls eligibility; a newly added outcome may belong to an older parent event. Russia, Ukraine, wars and armed conflicts are excluded worldwide. Automated screening flags questions, tags, rules and context, while an explicit editorial review is required before publication. Civilian electoral or judicial disagreements are not automatically treated as armed conflict.
Polymarket supplies contract metadata and observations, not independent journalism. Imported titles and rules do not become sourced analytical articles automatically. We aim for one article per underlying event, with the exact selected outcome identified in its market panel.
7. Update deliberately
The analytical text is static, with explicit publication and review dates. Its reporting does not update automatically. The separate market-data panel refreshes public price and status data in the visitor’s browser; a fresh quote is not a fresh editorial review. A later revision should reflect new verified evidence, preserve useful prior context, and change the review date only when the article is substantively reviewed. Settled events can remain available as dated explainers.